Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
