Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
